A hung parliament again? Latest polls show Labor still leading, but forming a government is difficult

Comprehensive report from New Zealand Chinese Herald The latest Talbot Mills Research poll showed support for the National Party at 32 per cent, a figure well above the 28.4 per cent recorded in another poll earlier this month.

The survey, produced for Anacta Consulting and other corporate clients, found Labor currently tops the list with 35 per cent support, followed by National on 32 per cent.

In addition, the Green Party and New Zealand First Party are evenly divided, with support rates both tied at 11%. The ACT Party’s support rate is 7%, while the Maori Party has only 2%. It is worth noting that Talbot Mills is also responsible for producing internal polling for the Labor Party.

The poll was conducted slightly later than the Taxpayers Union-Curia poll that hit National hard two weeks ago. The investigation began on March 2 – a day when Prime Minister Christopher Luxon made frequent slip-ups when explaining New Zealand’s stance on the war with Iran – and ended on March 12. The period captured the full social response to the National Party’s disastrous poll results.

If calculated based on this data, New Zealand’s political arena will face the embarrassing situation of a hung parliament, with the left and right camps each holding 61 seats, along with two excess seats. This calculation assumes that the Maori Party can retain four electorate seats.

When Talbot Mills released the data, it commented that after the widespread heated discussion caused by the Curia poll, this result may allow the government and the Prime Minister to breathe a sigh of relief. The report believes that public sentiment towards the current situation of the country is becoming more optimistic, with 46% of respondents believing that the country is on the right path, exceeding the 44% who hold opposing views.

Although 67% of people still have a negative view of the economy, 32% think that the economy is improving. Considering that these two indicators are often strong predictors of public sentiment, this poll undoubtedly injects new variables into the election campaign.